The demand for rare earth elements (REEs) and rare metals (RMs) is surging, driven by the world’s increasing appetite for green energy and advanced technologies. Key elements such as uranium, lithium and tantalum are becoming essential in the transition to net-zero emissions and the rise of artificial intelligence.
Two primary factors are fueling this demand. First, the economic necessity for clean energy technologies is expected to quadruple the need for REEs and RMs by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency. Second, supply challenges complicate the situation. Resources are genuinely rare, and in the West, concerns about environmental hazards from mining further hinder access. Meanwhile, sanctions on Russia and China’s restrictive export policies on strategic commodities exacerbate the scarcity. Sub-Saharan Africa faces geopolitical instability that limits its export capabilities, making Central Asia—especially resource-rich Kazakhstan, along with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan—a more viable alternative.
Central Asian leaders recognize that capitalizing on their local resources requires foreign investment, technology and expertise. The European Union and the United States are keen to tap into Central Asia’s mineral potential, and recent shifts in the region’s attitudes toward resource development could facilitate this. Unlike Western nations, Central Asian governments are eager to transform their abundant REE and RM deposits into new revenue streams. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has even referred to these resources as the “new oil.”
However, the challenge lies in the region’s historical ties to Russia and China. China dominates the global REE market, controlling the majority of production and reserves. It has restricted the export of extraction and separation technologies, solidifying its leadership in the sector. Despite this, experts note that China’s share of global REE supply has decreased since 2010, and its rising domestic demand—driven by microchip production and green energy—fuels its interest in Central Asian resources, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where it holds nearly all rare-earth mining leases.
Russia remains focused on maintaining its influence in Central Asia, particularly concerning Kazakhstan’s uranium, the world’s largest producer. Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russia for uranium transportation and processing highlights Moscow’s key role in the nuclear sector. With France also eyeing Kazakhstan’s uranium amid instability in Niger, the urgency for diversification in supply chains increases, especially for the U.S. as it seeks to reduce reliance on Russia.
Central Asian nations, heavily indebted to China and wary of repercussions from Russia, face significant economic and security challenges that may hinder their potential as reliable suppliers of critical minerals to Europe and the U.S. Additionally, given the region’s preference for authoritarian governance, Western countries may need to reassess their commitment to expensive and geopolitically risky projects in Central Asia. A more prudent approach might involve diversifying supply chains to prioritize countries like Australia, Argentina and Canada.
