China’s copper demand is projected to peak by the end of the decade, according to a report from Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., a state-backed research organization. This prediction provides a contrasting view to the more optimistic forecasts for the metal’s future.
While Antaike acknowledges significant growth in demand from the renewable energy sector—a key focus for copper advocates—it also notes challenges stemming from a slowing Chinese economy and a trend toward substituting aluminum for copper in certain applications.
Antaike analyst Yang Changhua shared insights at a conference in Wuhan, revealing that China’s copper demand growth will average just 1.1% in the five years leading up to 2030, a marked decrease from the 3.9% growth rate observed from 2020 to 2025. He pointed out that the copper intensity in renewable investments is decreasing as industries seek to lower their material usage or switch to alternative materials.
In recent years, optimistic forecasts for copper have emerged, largely based on the belief that global mining operations would struggle to meet a sustained demand boom. Prices surged to a record high of over $11,000 per ton this year, driven by indications of supply constraints. However, prices have since retreated, hovering around $9,500 on the London Metal Exchange as China’s economic performance falters and global manufacturing remains sluggish. This marks a fourth consecutive weekly decline.
Antaike’s forecast of a peak demand by 2030 faces several risks, including the strength of China’s manufacturing exports and the potential relocation of factories abroad. While Yang did not provide a global demand outlook, he mentioned that China’s combined consumption of copper from electric vehicles, as well as the solar and wind sectors, is expected to rise to 3.1 million tons by 2030. This figure would represent 26% of the nation’s total copper demand, a significant increase from 15% in 2023.
