Chinese exports of critical minerals are returning to more typical levels, alleviating concerns that government-imposed restrictions last year might disrupt supplies crucial to global high-tech manufacturers.
Recent customs data reveals that exports of gallium, germanium and graphite initially spiked as buyers stockpiled before the implementation of export controls. This was followed by a significant decline and a subsequent recovery. This trend may provide insights for buyers of antimony, another critical metal, which will face export restrictions starting next month.
The export restrictions, enacted in August and December, were largely seen as China’s response to US-led measures targeting its access to advanced chips and artificial intelligence technologies. Additionally, China aimed to control exports to keep domestic prices favorable for its refineries and manufacturing sectors.
Gallium exports have rebounded the most robustly since the restrictions, while other minerals have shown slower recoveries. Natural graphite exports, for instance, fell 17% to 101,233 tons in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the previous year. This decline is attributed to increased overseas mining and reduced demand for electric vehicles, which use graphite in batteries, according to BloombergNEF analyst Xu Peng.
Despite a broad decline in battery material prices, gallium and germanium prices remain strong. Germanium prices have hit record highs due to high global demand for technologies such as infrared sensors and fiber optics.
On the wire
- The future of Southeast Asia’s solar industry, which is the second-largest producer of solar panels globally after China, faces uncertainty as the US considers imposing substantial tariffs on the region.
- China’s slowing industrial profit growth, reduced PMI, and lower coal-fired electricity output growth could put downward pressure on thermal coal prices, as noted by Bloomberg Intelligence.
- With a surplus in production for various industries, including electric vehicles and solar panels, falling prices and increasing global trade tensions are sparking new trade disputes.
